Fool me twice … Shame on me.
Once. Twice. How many times does it take for farmers to understand Trump’s agriculture polices cannot be trusted?
First term Trump: The biggest victims during Trump’s first term were soybean farmers. Trump started a tariff war with China that led to China’s retaliatory tariffs, causing US soybean prices to drop 30%. Brazil stepped up and took over the China market.
The 30% drop in US prices resulted in Trump’s tariff trade war coughing up more than $32 billion for use in handouts and bailouts for farmers. Some said it was better to “farm the government” than to “farm the land.”
Maybe it was, but that was a one-time action by a man who was planning to run for president again.
Iowa is my home state. For more than a decade, I was 50% owner of a 1000 acre operation. We understand the challenges. We fought for better prices with holding actions and a major tractorcade. We raised prices by standing together. Our actions worked — until they didn’t.
The corporates struck again; one could call them “friends of Trump.” This time the Farm Bill was called “Freedom to Farm.” Too many people fell for that lovely name. Some of us did not; we called it “Freedom to Fail,” and yes, people failed. The bottom dropped out of hog prices. In Iowa, this meant the hog business which had been 80% family farm flipped, and sank to 20% family farm. This time the corporates won.
By then, I was with USDA during the Clinton Administration. We wanted to stabilize prices, but “Freedom to Farm” had eliminated the “tools” to do so, so we got creative, and went for smaller ways to help. It was good that we tried and managed to help somewhat, but it wasn’t enough.
Now, flash forward. 2nd Term Trump is doing the same things deliberately again. As a result of his shockingly high tariffs, the rural economy is shattering. Farmers cannot even count on break-even prices. Iowa’s economic activity has been rated as “The Worst State Economy” in 2025.
Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa, and North Dakota have seen so little change in their GDPs that the “change” can’t even pass the mirror test. When Trump and Musk’s minions shut down USAID, Kansas lost almost its entire market for grain sorghum. Not a single major farm state made it into the top half of WalletHub’s state-by-state economic rankings.
Sobens are down 30%. Corn is at a little more than $4; it takes $7 to find a profit.
Admittedly, farmers need to find hope somewhere, so some have pinned their hopes on the Trump Administration’s investigation of Brazilian farmers’ conversion of Amazon forest land into farmland for growing soybeans.
Yes, Brazil benefited from Trump’s first-term trade war, and yes, farmers still don’t understand. Trump dumped $32 billion in aid to farmers during his first term, but this time, are farmers hearing any ching-ching of cash bailouts? (Answer: NO!) Are they noticing one of Trump’s classic strategies — blaming others, blaming and blaming, and then changing the subject? (Apparently NOT!)
Clearly, life goes full circle: In Trump’s first term,
- Trump used tariffs to start a trade war with China
- Brazil benefited BIG time.
- Trump gave a BIG bailout for US farmers.
In Trump’s second term, the circle churns:
- Trump uses tariffs to start a trade war with China
- Brazil keeps the markets it gained in Trump’s last tariff trade war.
- Trump blames Brazil, so farmers gather up their hopes. NOTE: Hope is not as tangible as cash.
- No ching-ching of cash can be heard.
News — 2nd Trump Term
FarmJournal, AgWeb/Reuters: US Soybean Farmers Urge Trump to Make Purchase Deal with China
Doug Palmer, Politico and Greenwire: E& E News, US soybean farmers hope Brazil probe can help rebuild Chinese market
WalletHub: States with the best economies/21697
Rebecca Wolf, Food and Water Watch: How Trump’s Tariffs Hurt Farmers and Families
News — 1st Trump Term:
Ryan McCrimmon, Politico: Trump tariffs lead to bleak 2019 farm forecasts
USDA/ERS: The Economic Impacts of Retaliatory Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture